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Navigating Trade Disruptions, Climate Change, Inflation, and Labour Shortages—How the UK Food Industry and the UK Food Council Are Shaping a Secure, Sustainable, and Affordable Food System

Executive Overview:

Britain’s food system stands at a critical juncture. From Brexit-driven border disruptions to spiralling food inflation, climate-induced crop failures, and a persistent labour shortage, the UK faces a “perfect storm” threatening the affordability, availability, and integrity of its food supply. With over 14 million people now experiencing food insecurity and costs for even basic groceries reaching record highs, robust solutions are needed from policymakers, the UK Food Industry, and influential bodies like the UK Food Council.

Recent years have tested Britain’s food resilience like never before, exposing weaknesses in supply chain logistics, regulatory alignment, and workforce planning. This comprehensive Insight report examines the state of UK food security in 2025, spotlighting the interplay between global and domestic pressures, industry responses, and government strategies—including landmark initiatives by the UK Food Council to chart a course toward sustainable, equitable food access across the UK Food Industry.

Insight Report Highlights:

State of UK Food Security in 2025: The Macro Landscape
Hunger, Hardship, and Food Poverty

Britain’s food poverty has reached a historic high: More than 14 million people—including 3.8 million children—now regularly skip meals or go without sufficient nutrition. The Trussell Trust’s latest data reveals that 31% of children under five live in households facing hunger, and food banks now serve not only the unemployed but a rising proportion of working families (30%). Lifting benefit caps and tackling low wages are critical measures experts demand to reverse this trajectory.

These sobering figures highlight the urgent need for coordinated policy and industry action—exactly the focus of cross-sector initiatives by bodies like the UK Food Council, which are mobilising collective solutions across the UK Food Industry.

Key Trends and Concerns in the UK Food Industry

The year 2025 has seen severe cost-of-living pressures converge with global disruptions, fundamentally altering the landscape for UK food manufacturers, retailers, and consumers

Table: Major Drivers of UK Food System Volatility (2020–2025)

Source: Compiled by UK Food Council Insight analysis

Brexit, Border Friction, and Regulatory Disruption
Fractured Trade, Eased by New Agreements

The immediate aftermath of Brexit introduced major headaches for the UK Food Industry: new customs checks and extensive sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) rules, lorry queues, and surging admin costs threatened to choke the supply of fresh food. Loss of regulatory certainty and friction at the EU border, coupled with declining import and export flows, have been a dominant narrative.

However, 2025 has brought critical developments:

• UK/EU Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) Agreement: A permanent deal has been struck, removing routine SPS border checks for most food categories and eliminating associated fees. Checks for medium-risk imported fruit and vegetables have been postponed until at least.

• The SPS zone alignment streamlines paperwork and is projected to save UK businesses up to £200 per consignment, bolstering resilience in the supply chain and stabilising prices for consumers.
  
  

Alignment on SPS rules is vital for maintaining “frictionless” trade with the EU, the UK’s largest food trading partner, and for safeguarding the continuous supply of key products.

Table: How Brexit Changed UK Food Supply Chains

Analysis:
Initial Brexit frictions raised costs and reduced availability, but recent regulatory convergence under the new SPS agreement has started to reverse some of the damage. However, policy complexity and the risk of diverging standards persist, as does the need for robust food law enforcement in a context of skills shortages and shifting governance.

Trade Wars and Global Supply Chain Disruptions
From Pandemic to War: Unpredictable Shocks

Britain’s deep reliance on food imports (about 42% of consumption, over a third from the EU) made it highly sensitive to supply chain shocks triggered by global events. Between 2020 and 2025:

• The COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Red Sea shipping attacks, and global trade wars have successively strained British food shelve.

• Price hikes for wheat, vegetable oils, and key staples (e.g., olive oil up 118% since 2020) have rippled through the market.

• The US, a major trade partner, now imposes significant tariffs on certain imports, fueling an inflationary environment and complicating “just-in-time” logistics.
  
  

Strategic response:

• Industry and the UK Food Council champion stockpiling, diversification of suppliers, and a pivot to “just-in-case” over “just-in-time” inventory strategies.

• Investment in advanced risk modelling, digital twins, and predictive analytics for supply chain resilience is accelerating among major food businesses.
  
  

Case study: Major UK grocers and food manufacturers now routinely reassess their inventory and risk profiles, taking lessons from other nations (e.g., France and Belgium’s local food reserves) to shape future food security legislation. See the full Insight report.

UK Food Inflation: Regulatory and Supply-Driven Pressures
Surging Food Prices: The New Normal?

Britain’s food inflation continues to outpace that of most comparable European countries, rising an extraordinary 37% between January 2020 and July 2025 (cf. overall UK inflation of 28%). The primary drivers in 2025 are:

• Regulatory Costs: Packaging taxes, employer NIC increases, business rates, and full border checks have added over £1.1 billion in annual operating costs for the UK Food Industry. The Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) packaging regime alone accounts for a large part of this pressure, with the Deposit Return Scheme to follow.

• Residual Energy and Commodity Pressure: While energy costs have stabilised since the shocks of 2022-23, fresh volatility remains a threat.

• Climate Shocks: Two consecutive years of poor harvests have resulted in wheat production 9% below the ten-year average, further squeezing supply.
  
  

Double-digit inflation has especially affected beef, butter, chocolate, coffee, and whole milk, with less affluent households now spending 12.8% of their income on food (compared to 8.7% among the wealthiest).

Table: UK Food Inflation Compared to Peers (July 2025)

Analysis:
The UK Food Industry and the UK Food Council are pushing for urgent action to compress regulatory costs, streamline compliance, and boost domestic productivity to counteract price rises.

Labour Shortages Across the UK Food System
The Workforce Squeeze: From Farm to Supermarket

A chronic shortage of workers has become a defining challenge for the UK food sector post-Brexit, with impacts across agriculture, transport, processing, and retail.

Key statistics:

• Approximately 60,000 seasonal workers are needed annually in horticulture, with only 5% sourced from the UK, down from heavy pre-Brexit reliance on EU migrants.

• Vacancy rates in food processing, meat, and logistics routinely exceed 10–16%, with butchers, HGV drivers, and warehouse operatives among the hardest roles to fill.

• Poultry and pig farming report persistent unfilled roles, leading to output cuts and underutilised capacity.

Government and UK Food Council Response:

• Extension of the Seasonal Worker visa route to 2029, with gradual reduction in quota as automation gains traction.

• Massive investment (£270 million) in automation (e.g., robotic picking in horticulture), innovation hubs, and training programmes for domestic workers.

• The Food and Drink Sector Council, supported by UK Food Council strategy, leads projects to publicise industry roles, improve engagement, and boost upskilling and apprenticeship schemes.

Critical insight:
Labour shortages are not merely operational hurdles, but risks to national food security, competitive advantage, and the mental health of food sector workers.

Climate Change and Risks to UK Food Production
Weather Extremes Push British Farming to the Brink

The effects of climate change now touch every link in Britain’s food supply chain:

• Repeated flooding, heatwaves, and droughts have devastated crops—particularly wheat, potatoes, fruits, and vegetables—over the last three years32.

• The 2023/24 season witnessed the wettest 18 months on record in England, resulting in soil erosion, crop failure, and delayed planting of key arable crops33.

• Adverse weather disrupts livestock as much as crops; feed shortages and heat stress increase costs and reduce quality.
  
  

Mitigation and adaptation strategies:

• The government’s Environmental Land Management Schemes (ELMS) and Defra’s climate adaptation policies provide critical financial and technical support to farmers for soil health, water management, and biodiversity.

• Precision breeding, alternative crops (such as soya and legumes), and resilient farming techniques receive expanded funding.
  
  

Outlook:
Though warmer winters could allow for expanded production of new crops, opportunities are outstripped by current risks—particularly in high-value sectors like fruits and brassicas. Regional disparities in adaptation capacity remain a concern.

Table: Climate Risks and Opportunities for UK Agriculture

Inventory Control in the Age of Disruption

Inventory Management as a Buffer Against Instability

Efficient inventory management and demand forecasting are now core to UK food system resilience:

• Tech integration: Widespread adoption of ERP, IoT sensors, and artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming stock control, allowing manufacturers and retailers to monitor real-time data, reduce spoilage, and optimise purchasing3436.

• “Just-in-case” vs “just-in-time”: Many major food businesses, prompted by the UK Food Council’s thought leadership, maintain higher stock levels of essential goods to absorb supply shocks.

Operational insights:

• Inventory turnover rates of 4–6 times per month and frequent audits reduce both waste and risk of stockouts.

• Cloud integration, automated reordering, and staff training in inventory protocols are increasingly standard.
  
  

Best practice guidance from the UK Food Council and UK Food Industry: Invest in smart analytics, improve supplier relationships, and train staff for data-driven supply chain management as a defence against further volatility.

The UK Food Council: Uniting the Sector for Resilience

A National Platform for Innovation and Policy Impact

The UK Food Council has emerged as a central node for dialogue, collaboration, and solutions across the UK Food Industry:

• Flagship initiatives:

  • Food 2030: Collaborative drive to end food poverty by 2030 through policy advocacy, business partnership, and targeted innovation.

  • Cloche Training Initiative: Apprenticeship academy for modern food sector careers, with a focus on upskilling for sustainable production and logistics roles.

  • Combating Obesity Group (COG): Industry-wide campaign promoting health, wellness, and informed consumption; supports regulatory and brand initiatives for lower-processed, higher-fibre diets.

  • Gather Table Talks: Industry summits uniting leaders and innovators to address headline issues in food supply, trade, technology, and climate resilience.
    
    

• Policy influence and community outreach: The Council is a recognised dialogue partner for government, holding “Approved Partner Status” with the UN Food & Agricultural Organisation, and regularly bringing together industry, government, and academia for policy shaping and solution implementation.
  

UK Government Response and Policy Update

“Good Food Cycle” and 2025 Food Strategy

The UK government’s new “Good Food Cycle” strategy, launched in 2025, is a generational vision incorporating industry, academic, and cross-Whitehall input. The ten core outcomes are grouped into four pillars:

• Healthier, Affordable Food: Greater access, proactive food environments, and support for vulnerable populations (including expansion of free school meals and breakfast clubs).

• Good Growth in the Food Sector: Investment in sustainable business, fairer supply chains, and skills development.

• Sustainable and Resilient Supply: Animal welfare, waste reduction, and export promotion, alongside robust supply chain preparedness.

• Celebration of Food Culture: Valuing local/regional food, boosting community links, and building the UK’s culinary reputation.
  
  

Next steps:

• Legislation for mandatory healthy food sales reporting, transparent nutrient profiling, and wider industry participation.

• A White Paper in 2026, with a shift toward actionable, sector-wide programme delivery and robust consumer health and sustainability standards.

Table: Major Trends Impacting UK Food Security in 2025

Conclusion and Forward-Looking Action

The Path to UK Food Security in 2025 and Beyond

Food security is no longer a given. Britain’s recent experience with trade disruptions, inflation, regulatory complexity, and climate shocks has highlighted the need for a holistic, system-wide response. The UK Food Council and its network of stakeholders in the UK Food Industry play a critical role in blending innovation, policy, market adaptation, and community engagement.

Efforts must now focus on:

• Supporting sustainable, climate-resilient agriculture.

• Streamlining trade and regulatory processes while maintaining the highest food safety standards.

• Tackling labour shortages through upskilling, automation, and inclusive sector recruitment.

• Engaging consumers and local communities in food education, healthy choices, and waste reduction.

• Advancing digital marketing and local SEO to restore footfall and loyalty across Britain’s independent and branded food outlets.
  
  

With continued cross-sector collaboration, the UK can transform current adversity into an opportunity for food sovereignty, nutrition equity, business resilience, and environmental stewardship.

Call to Action:
Policymakers, businesses, and civic leaders are invited to connect with the UK Food Council for tailored strategic support, risk assessment, and insight-driven guidance at the interface of trade, climate, workforce, and innovation.

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